Ten years after the UK stumbled into a hasty referendum that divided the nation and triggered disorder, a advisory emerges from beyond the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
Policymakers and electorate entered unwittingly Brexit and the same could occur with a referendum on a united Ireland, sparking upheavals for which nobody is prepared.
That represents the warning from two leading commentators from either side of the Irish border who have collaborated to analyse the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to create a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.
Administrative Establishments Unprepared
The author and columnist and Sam McBride, have concluded that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are extremely ill-prepared for a possibly fraught and transformative referendum.
"The key takeaway of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that stuff can emerge unexpectedly and can gain traction very quickly," the commentator remarked. "In my opinion that the political architecture of our archipelago remains very unstable."
New Title Aims to Provoke Discussion
The pair have studied the political, economic and societal arguments for any structural alteration in a book, The Case For and Against Unification, issued by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They hope to encourage dialogue on the issue with a series of speaking events that will bring them to Westminster soon.
"What concerns everybody, or should haunt everybody, is the Brexit vote of 2016," said O’Toole.
"We should prevent a referendum on a binary, ambiguous question whose implications have not been spelled out because then you find yourself with an extremely divided society where those defeated are unable to accept defeat and the people who have won don't know quite what it is that they have won."
Legal Framework
Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland government minister is obliged to schedule a referendum on Irish unity if it appears likely that a most voters would approve.
Nationalist parties and other pro-unification groups say such a time is approaching, and a organisation called pro-unification advocates has garnered backing, but both governments and unionists minimise the likelihood, leaving it unclear whether or when there might be a national vote.
Lack of Informed Dialogue
Political rhetoric supporting and opposing unity has hidden the lack of serious debate, stated the journalist.
"Many are supportive or opposed the concept but the actual thinking which may surpass that to make it possible has largely not occurred. A great deal has occurred in scholarly circles but hardly any government figures or campaigners want to engage even with the fundamentals. As an example, what type of nation would you want? Unitary? Federal?"
Book's Approach
In the book, neither author advocates unification or the current situation. They composes two articles that seek neutrality in presenting the rationale for a unified Ireland and the case against, assembling economic and societal figures, previous instances and constitutional models.
Debates cover identity markers, levies, healthcare systems, retirement funds, sovereign debt obligations and the threat of loyalist violence. The aim is to educate and provoke dialogue.
"There's huge interest in the subject but there hasn't quite been a discussion," said the writer. "Dialogue implies an acknowledgement of the notion that there could be valid points on both sides."
Parallel Votes
A referendum in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the republic, where citizens report they prefer unification but oppose increased taxation or implementing a new flag to recognise pro-UK communities' British culture.
"Policymakers in Ireland must establish what the proposal from nationalist groups is aside from just stating: 'We desire a unified Ireland and we welcome you'," remarked O’Toole.
Possibility of Referendum
The journalist believes a referendum in his era is probable and that it may take place suddenly. "It is possible just a reckless or a ill-advised or a incompetent official who declares: 'Let us proceed and get it out of the way.'"
Both pro-unification advocates and pro-UK supporters have plausible, justified arguments, he said. "Somebody will prevail here and somebody will in the end be defeated but both parties has possesses important lessons to learn from the opposing arguments."
Call for Wider Discussion
Westminster needed to engage with the dialogue, stated O’Toole. "This concerns Britain. It is a British question as much as it is an Irish matter."
